When will India declare?

Third day of the test match, post-tea session to go, Australia trailing by 200 odd runs, bowlers in top form - M.S. Dhoni decides to not enforce the follow on.

Let's talk about this last bit before we ponder about the exact number of overs that should be given to the Australians for their 4th innings. Well, it's a shame that in spite of the deficit, we decided not to enforce the follow on. A team which is following on is under the added pressure of removing the deficit before setting a total for the other team to chase. For the moment, assume that follow on was enforced. In the best case (for Australia), they would have gotten rid of the deficit in less than two sessions, and would have taken around 3 sessions to set India a total of 300-350 in about 70 overs. That's considering an average of around 4 an over - sure, if our bowlers smoked weed all day and let them score freely. The match would have ended in a tame draw. But, if, and this ain't that big an if I'm talking about, they were bowled out for 400-450 in 4 sessions, you have a target of 250 in three. Consider for a moment-

• the Australian batting line up. Ponting, Hussey and Watson have clicked till now, the rest have struggled.
• the Indian bowling lineup - Ishant and Amit Mishra.

Under these conditions, Australia scoring 550 runs is out of the picture. A 400-450 is more likely, and expected, from the dangerous Kangaroos. The cons for India-

• dealing with tired bowlers in session 3, day 3.
• a batting collapse on a day 5 pitch.
  

The pitch has held pretty nicely and well, and if your bowlers can't take the pitch for two days on the trot, then you can forget about winning a test match. The weather's been decent in Mohali (oh, I miss those winters) and it's not as if your bowlers are carrying injuries.

Now that they've decided to bat, when must India declare? The highest successful chase in the fourth innings, ever, is 418. They already have 300 on board. Another session and 20 overs should be enough for a total for 500-530. That gives the Indian bowlers around 4 sessions and 10 nervous overs for Australia before tea. If there happens to be an Indian batting collapse, Aussie will have around 5 sessions to chase down around 380-400 runs - Doable.

There won't be any dew at Mohali at this time of the year, but the sweaty wicket and the reverse swing in the later part of the day will bother the Indian batting. Had they enforced the follow on, they would had the evening session on the 3rd day (i.e. today), whatever little purchase from the track in the morning and the reverse in the latter part of the fourth day.

It ultimately boils down to this, are you looking to first make sure that you don't lose the match, or you want to challenge the opposition to save the match if they can? I miss Dada's captaincy the most, at times like these.

Khuda Hafiz,
Sultan of Samarkand.